CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Wed 18 Jan 06:00 - Thu 19 Jan 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 17 Jan 23:33 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Blocking over NErn Europe remains, and westerly flow splits west of Europe into a northern branch that reachs the North Pole and a southern branch that affects Mediterranean. The latter forms a broad trough with an axis stretching from northern central Mediterranean to Algeria. While the southern part of this long wave trough cuts off over Algeria, the northern part accelerates eastward affecting eastern Mediterranean during the period. In the range of the trough, cool airmass is present over Mediterranean Sea ... that is characterized by neutral to unstable low-level lapse rates. However ... due to poor low-level moisture, amount of CAPE is quite small ... and showers that have formed on Tuesday where shallow and did not produce much thunder. It is not expected that this general situation will change significantly on Wednesday. However ... given some DCVA east of the propagating trough ... chance for thunderstorms should be greater over Aegean Sea during the afternoon/evening/night hours. Given strong DLS ... isolated organized thunderstorms are not ruled out ... capable of producing large hail/severe wind gusts. Threat should be very low, though.

DISCUSSION

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